That Was The Week That Was 05-09 October
A barnstorming week – it is all about the journey
It is arguable that there are two groups in aviation that have had a good pandemic: the cargo airlines and the airframe service companies that either put aircraft in mothballs, or convert passenger aeroplanes into cargo aircraft. Generally, the only reason passenger airlines carry cargo is because aircraft are cylindrical. If the belly was not there, there would be no cargo ULDs cluttering up airports. But now, now, watch as all the passenger airlines suddenly convert their aircraft and invest in netting so that they can store cargo on seats.
It will be interesting to watch if the newly converted former-passenger-airlines, so keen to be in the freight business, sign on for real, because it is getting real. You want to be in cargo, believe like a cargo airline. On Monday, the Global Express Association – which represents DHL, FedEx and UPS – released a call for sensible deregulation. Deregulation that recognises that the cargo industry should not be subject to the antediluvian ‘Freedoms of the Sky’ which have captured, imprisoned and restrained aviation since 1944. Time, they say, for real reform which will allow cargo airlines to be part of the modern world. They want to be able to take their freight directly to where the shippers want it to be. So far, stony silence from the passenger airlines now acting like cargo airlines.
But, in case you were thinking that we can focus on the future, on Tuesday, the European Transport Commissioner, Adina V?lean made crystal clear where the destination is: 1946. Strap in, it is going to get ugly, and not just because we are talking about Brexit. Commissioner V?lean made crystal clear that the Commission was intending to enforce forcefully the ownership and control restrictions. Not only is the destination 1946, it seems that the only way we can get there is by backward steps. Why, in 2020, a year like no other, are we determined to limit and restrain airlines raising capital in the market of their incorporation instead of the quality of their business plan? It is madness. Sure, this was a barnstorming display of anti-Brexit braggadocio but, really? Where does that journey lead?
Arguably the single greatest driver of wanderlust in the history of travel, National Geographic, also turned its attention to the journey: destination interface on Tuesday. If ever there was a force for promoting the destination it is National Geographic. So when it considers the journey, rather than the destination, it is worth thinking about. Think diversity; quality not quantity; and travelling better. But, in better news for the industry, National Geographic claims that planning your next trip is good for your health.
Notwithstanding the consensus industry view, we believe that the lack of journeys is not the fear of flying; it is the fear of arriving. It is the lack of destinations that is driving the downbeat forecasts. Still, to get to the destinations, it is indisputable that you have to make a journey, which will require an aeroplane. On Wednesday Boeing put out its new market forecast, which despite predicting a fall in the market of about 11%, was almost immediately criticised for being too optimistic.
Things are certainly bleak, and we should applaud the airlines that are looking for new business models – like our newly converted cargo friends. There is another innovative model out there. Well, innovative in an ‘everything old is new again’ sort of way. Once, at the dawn of aviation, pilots would fly to a town, land in a paddock nearby, put up a big sign and offer residents joyrides. Yes, it has come to this: we are offering barnstorming flights again. At least when Qantas offer you 13 hour non-stop flights, not from Perth to London, but to Antarctica and back, or over the centre of Australia, you see Antarctica, or Uluru, or the Barrier Reef. In Singapore on Thursday, the cruise industry was given permission to offer services where the passengers cruise around – as socially distanced as possible – but never land. It is not the destination; it is the voyage.
Which is where easyJet found itself too, on Friday, getting attacked for asking for financial assistance…? This is all that is wrong with the current way of doing things. A good airline, with a profitable past and a fair belief it can both survive the pandemic and grow in the future but would like help weather the current storm. Apparently, we should be just throwing money at airlines that have no prospect of survival – looking at you Alitalia – because, well, Chicago Convention… Not only when it comes to one’s personal travel, but to the industry itself, it is the journey (which in this case means as many trips to the public funding spigot as you can get away with) not the destination: profitable, strong airlines and a profitable strong aviation industry. Enjoy the trip.