That Was The Week That Was 03-07 October 2022
The Assembly Over The Water
The capacity of aviation to teach us history never ceases to amaze. This week, the week that was, threw us back to the Glorious Revolution of 1688, as the States of the World Assembled in Montreal to discuss just how much we hate Russia (a lot) and just how much we love pointless gestures (even more).
By the end of the week, European, indeed global aviation was looking as pathetic and as pitiable as the last of the Jacobians, lamely toasting their ‘King over the water’. Bless. The Jacobites wanted their catholic, Stuart king – who was both James II and James VII (one of England, one of Scotland) – to take back what was lost when the protestant Dutch, led by William of Orange, had marched (invited) to England in 1688 and installed himself and his cousin Mary (James II/VII’s daughter) to the throne. England went from a two-for-the-price-of-one monarch to a one-for-the-price-of-two deal. The mostly protestant English troops had turned and joined William’s troops as he marched to London, making the revolution as bloodless as realistically possible. The last surviving Jacobians fell back, looking before and aft and longing for what was not.
What, I hear you ask, has this possibly got to do with aviation? Well may you ask, but think through the analogies, and indeed the metaphors. The aviation industry welcomed the decision by the Assembly of ICAO to agree a long-term aspirational goal. How we toasted that achievement! Happy days for aviation! It was only when you chose to look at the actual agreement you realise that it is meaningless. Indeed, instead of ne zero, you long for at least some CO2 because then there is a chance there is something to hold onto. To contemplate the value of this is to wrestle with a column of smoke. It is the agreement from the Assembly over the water and as likely to take effect.
But still we toast it. The William and Mary in this scenario are the combined forces of reality and the market. The NGOs were quick to point out the reality. The market will do the rest. The troops changing sides on religious grounds are the airlines that understand that they need to do more, faster, than this aspiration. In their own Battle of Bannockburn, IATA even tried, and spectacularly failed to make the thresholds even weaker. Does anyone, truly think that this is of any value, of any meaning whatsoever? It does not apply in Europe (the much stricter ETS does instead), it has been universally ignored outside Europe and, here is the hint, the airlines support it, notwithstanding a valiant but doomed attempt by IATA to make it even weaker.
Charge your glasses please!